Government Decision and Sector Reaction
The announcement of the ban on betting platforms caught the market by surprise last Friday. The sector, which had transferred R$ 9 billion to public coffers in 2024 and another R$ 9.9 billion in the first eight months of 2025 alone, saw its operations suddenly halted.
Net Loss Calculation
A study conducted by economist Guilherme Klein, from the Center for Research in Macroeconomics of Inequalities at USP, challenges the view of fiscal gain. According to the analysis, the bets withdrew between R$ 120 billion and R$ 141 billion from economic circulation in 2025, due to family indebtedness and the drop in consumption.
Applying the consumption multiplier measured by IBGE, the researcher arrived at a minimum loss of R$ 31.1 billion in taxes. Subtracting the R$ 9 billion collected directly from betting houses, the final balance for public accounts is negative by R$ 22 billion.
Origin of the Numbers
The calculation is based on an estimate from the Celso Furtado Center: families transferred R$ 62.5 billion net to the platforms in 2024. On this amount, Klein applied the marginal propensity to consume from the Household Budget Survey to measure how much would stop circulating in the real economy.
Mental Health Costs
In addition to revenue, the study highlights additional expenses in the Unified Health System. Research from the Institute for Health Policy Studies calculates that damages associated with gambling addiction generate an annual cost of R$ 30.4 billion, including suicides, depression and medical treatments.
Sector Association Position
The National Association of Games and Lotteries contested the data, classifying them as a simulation dependent on assumptions. The entity argues that the multipliers used are higher than those adopted by private consultancies and that the volume of R$ 62.5 billion exceeds market projections between R$ 24 billion and R$ 35 billion.
Final Assessment by the Researcher
For Klein, the ban is the most appropriate measure at the current moment. Although higher taxation could be considered in theory, the size of the negative effects makes interrupting the activity the best available option.