Accelerated drop after historical peak
Bitcoin recorded a depreciation of over 50% in the last four months. After reaching US$ 126,198.07 on October 6, the cryptocurrency fell to US$ 60,074 last Thursday, a 17.43% drop in that single day.
The retraction mainly reflects the reduction of leveraged long positions. According to CoinMarketCap, US$ 1.23 billion in bitcoin liquidations were executed, with 80% of them in bullish bets, forcing automatic sales when collateral no longer covered the losses.
Macro and regulatory context
Experts point out that the movement is linked to broader economic and political factors. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out any government bailout for crypto assets weakened institutional confidence and accelerated sales.
Analyst Mariel Lang Saez emphasizes that the 50% correction is not exclusive to the crypto market but a reflection of amplified macroeconomic conditions. Unlike previous cycles, bitcoin is now integrated into the traditional financial system through ETFs and institutional flows.
Influence of tariffs and monetary policy
Julián Colombo, from Bitso for South America, highlights regulatory tensions in the United States, including delays from traditional banks and debates over the Clarity Act. Uncertainty over US economic indicators and possible intervention in the Japanese yen also weigh in.
Carolina Gama, from Bitget in Argentina, notes that the asset has started to closely track the S&P 500 and technology stocks. The three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025, from 4.25% to 3.50% and then to 3.75%, were not enough to sustain risk appetite, as Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution on January 28.
Past cycles and long-term view
- 2011: 93% drop
- 2015: 84% drop
- 2018: 83% drop
- 2022: 76% drop
These precedents show that deep corrections are common, followed by significant recoveries. Despite ETF outflows (over US$ 7 billion in November, US$ 2 billion in December and US$ 3 billion in January), managers still hold 1.27 million bitcoins, only 5% below the peak.
Publicly traded companies acquired about US$ 96 billion in bitcoin throughout 2025, reinforcing the institutional base. For analysts, the current phase represents a market adjustment, not a structural collapse, and the asset maintains solid fundamentals for investors with a long-term horizon.