Tariff rises and exports lose steam
Starting October 1, Brazilian meat sold to China will face a total charge of 67%, resulting from the additional 55% tariff plus the existing 12%. The increase was motivated by the exhaustion of the annual import quota without surcharge.
The 1.106 million ton limit was reached on September 30. For 2027, the cap rises to 1.128 million tons, but it is expected to be consumed much earlier, possibly by April.
Sector plans ahead
Unlike in 2026, when the quota was announced late, meatpackers now know the numbers in advance. The strategy is to start slaughters this month and shipments in November so the meat arrives at destination in early 2027.
The sea voyage between the two countries takes 40 to 45 days. With sales concentrated at the beginning of the year, export volumes tend to fall in the following months.
Chinese stocks and uncertainty
Abiec president Roberto Perosa warns that beef stocks in China are high and pork production is also elevated. Even with the advance shipments, the volume actually purchased will depend on local demand.
Quota division under discussion
To prevent the limit from being exhausted quickly, Abiec is resuming talks with the government on dividing the volume among exporting companies. The criteria would consider historical share and recent performance.
In parallel, China approved two new Brazilian beef plants — Supremo Carnes (MG) and Masterboi (PE) — and two chicken plants: Avivar Alimentos (MG) and Cooperativa Dália (RS).