Opportunity or Trap in the Election
A few days before the first round, analysts discuss the impact of an opposition victory on the Brazilian stock market. A re-election could generate moderate losses, while the opposite scenario would open space for significant appreciations. The secret, according to professionals, is to correctly size the risk.
Luís Stuhlberger, manager of the Verde fund, highlighted that a victory for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) could boost the Ibovespa by up to 30%. Other managers observe that the participation of investors in local stocks is at its lowest historical level, which would favor rapid upward movements.
Foreign Flow and Promising Sectors
Between May and August, R$ 38.26 billion in foreign resources left B3. Part of this capital could return if there is an expectation of greater fiscal rigor. Max Bohm, from Nomos, suggests prioritizing sanitation, electric energy, and telecommunications companies, which offer resilience regardless of the winner.
Felipe Passero, from Jaguaretê Investimentos, compares the moment to that observed in Colombia and Argentina, where quantitative funds amplified the market reaction.
Limits for the Directional Strategy
Anderson Moreira, from DEX, advises reserving at most 5% of assets for tactical operations linked to the electoral result. Sector ETFs or BOVA11 are indicated for those who prefer broad exposure without choosing specific stocks.
In case of a Lula victory, the projected drop ranges between 10% and 15%, with greater pressure on companies linked to interest rates and domestic consumption. Exporters like Suzano, WEG and Embraer tend to suffer less.
Protection and Diversification
To mitigate losses, it is recommended to maintain assets linked to the dollar, such as American stock ETFs traded on B3. Put options on the index or futures contracts also serve as hedges, although they require greater knowledge.
Passero suggests complementing the portfolio with South Korean stocks, which present attractive multiples and low correlation with Brazil.
Entry and Exit Timing
Bohm defends immediate positioning, without waiting for the result. Moreira proposes staggering purchases in stages — before the first round, between rounds, and after the definition — to reduce the impact of a single entry price.
Taking partial profits on strong rises is seen as prudent, as long as the stock portion does not exceed the planned limit of the portfolio.
Risks in Indexed Fixed Income
Long IPCA+ Treasury bonds may suffer negative mark-to-market if real rates rise after the election. Experts warn of unfavorable asymmetry in these securities in both electoral scenarios.