The Brazilian labor market shows unusual strength even as the economy loses momentum. The unemployment rate reached 5.3% in the quarter through August, the lowest level since the start of the IBGE historical series in 2012.
Impressive Numbers
The employed population reached 103.5 million people. The average real habitual income rose 3.7% in twelve months and reached R$ 3,777, raising the total mass of earnings to R$ 385.6 billion — annual growth of 4.8%.
Divergence between GDP and Jobs
While the quarterly GDP slowed from 1.1% to 0.5%, hiring continues. Experts note that restrictive monetary policy usually affects activity first before impacting employment. Companies, for now, reduce overtime and commissions before laying off.
Services Inflation Under Pressure
The services sector, labor-intensive, accumulates a 5.47% rise in twelve months. This component is the most resistant and reduces the Central Bank's margin to accelerate the reduction of the Selic, currently at 13.75%.
Income Rises, but Debts Too
Household debt reached 49.9% of income in July, with commitment of 28.7%. Default on free credit reached 8.0%, accompanied by average interest rates of 61.7% per year.
Perspectives until 2027
Analysts project that unemployment will rise to 5.6% at the end of 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. The focus should gradually shift from the quantity of jobs to labor productivity, an essential condition to sustain growth without permanent inflationary pressure.