PT advantage in the first round
A Datafolha survey released this Friday (September 11) indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintains his lead in the presidential race. In the first-round scenario, the PT candidate has 39% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) registers 35%.
Next in the list is the third-place candidate, whose performance lagged behind the two first names mentioned by respondents.
Runoff in a technical tie
When the simulation moves to a direct matchup between Lula and former President Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son, the score narrows. The current officeholder appears with 46%, against 44% for the senator.
Despite the two-point difference in Lula's favor, the result is treated as a technical tie, since the study's margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus.
Scenario reading
- The first-round scenario repeats the president's lead, as he was already ahead in previous surveys.
- In the direct duel, the distance between the two names is small enough that the race remains open.
- The survey interviews voters nationwide and is part of the series of tracking polls conducted by the institute throughout the election year.
Context
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator and appears as the PL's name in the race for the Planalto. Lula is seeking reelection and leads the simulations released so far. The numbers reinforce that the election may be decided only in a second round, with a tight margin between the two main contenders.