A tight race in the runoff scenario
The latest round of the Datafolha poll, released this Friday (11), shows a balanced picture in a potential second-round race for the Presidency of the Republic. In the scenario tested, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) registers 46% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears just behind, with 44%.
The two-percentage-point gap between the two names places the race within the limit of the poll's margin of error, of two points up or down — that is, from a statistical standpoint, it is a statistical tie.
How the poll was conducted
The institute detailed the procedures adopted in collecting the data:
- 2,002 voters were interviewed;
- Fieldwork was carried out between September 8 and 10;
- The margin of error is two percentage points, considering the usual confidence interval for this type of survey.
Reading the numbers
Polls that simulate runoff scenarios work as a snapshot of the moment when the data is collected, not as a prediction of the result. Variations within the margin of error, such as the one observed in this round, indicate that the race remains open and susceptible to fluctuations throughout the electoral period.
The release reinforces the reading that the difference between the two names is narrow enough that any shift in voter preferences could change the candidates' relative positions in future surveys.
What to watch from here on
Following the sequence of polls from different institutes tends to be more informative than analyzing a single survey in isolation. The combination of different methodologies, varying collection dates and the evolution of political news usually offers a more consistent overview of the electorate's mood.
In this release, Datafolha did not present additional breakdowns beyond the numbers from the runoff scenario and the methodological data already mentioned.