Poll released this Friday (11)
The latest Datafolha poll on the race for the government of São Paulo was made public this Friday (11). The study was commissioned by Grupo Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, and has a margin of error of two percentage points, plus or minus.
In the scenario presented, Governor and candidate for reelection Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) appears with 49% of voting intentions.
The same study also measures the position of Fernando Haddad (PT) in the electoral landscape, with the full numbers detailed in the poll report.
What the number represents
- 49% is the level attributed to Tarcísio de Freitas, who is running to keep the office he currently holds.
- The margin of error of two percentage points applies to all the results released.
- The survey is part of the series of polls commissioned by Grupo Globo and Folha de S.Paulo, the outlets that ordered the study.
Context of the race
The race for Palácio dos Bandeirantes is considered one of the most important in the Brazilian electoral calendar, both because of the state's economic weight and the size of the São Paulo electorate.
Tarcísio de Freitas's starting position speaks to the scenario of someone seeking reelection — a situation that usually offers a candidate visibility and structure, but also exposes him to voters' scrutiny of the current administration.
On the other side, the presence of Fernando Haddad among the names evaluated by Datafolha reinforces the shape of a confrontation that mobilizes historically organized political camps in the state.
How to read election polls
Experts usually recommend caution when reading any isolated poll. A few points help interpret the data:
- Margin of error: variations within the two-percentage-point range do not indicate a real change in the scenario.
- Historical series: comparing polls by the same institute, conducted on different dates, is more informative than analyzing a single result.
- Time of collection: the snapshot corresponds to the period when respondents were interviewed, not a definitive projection of the election result.
Next steps
New polls should be released over the coming months, tracking the evolution of the race and the definition of candidacies. The numbers from this Friday (11) now become part of the comparison base used by political analysts to measure the pace of the campaign in São Paulo.
The full results, with the breakdown by segments of the electorate and by the different scenarios tested, are available in the material released by the outlets that commissioned the study.