Higher Close
The commercial dollar closed Monday higher against the real, posting its highest close in six months. The U.S. currency advanced 0,83% to R$ 5,2264, surpassing the level seen on March 30.
For the year to date, however, the currency is still down 4,78%. The October futures contract also rose, reaching R$ 5,2285 on B3.
Reasons Behind the Appreciation
The move followed the dollar's strengthening against other emerging-market currencies. In addition, investors reacted to two electoral polls released early in the week.
Updated Projections
The Central Bank's Focus bulletin showed that the market raised its 2026 inflation estimate for the second straight week, now at 4,99%. The medians for the year point to the dollar at R$ 5,20, GDP growth of 1,86% and the Selic rate at 13,50%.
Electoral Polls
A BTG/Nexus survey indicated that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva widened his lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round. In the runoff, the difference reached two points, still within the technical-tie margin. Another institute, Quaest, is expected to release a new poll soon.