Race on the Edge
The presidential race is likely to be decided by a minimal margin. That is the assessment of André Esteves, chairman of BTG Pactual, who this Monday (Sept. 14, 2026) projected a practically tied runoff between the country's two main political camps.
According to the executive, the most likely scenario is an election decided in the details. “The election will be 51% to 49%, we just don't know for whom,” he summarized.
The weight of the “likely vote”
In Esteves's reading, the current picture is a technical tie, but there is one element that slightly tips the scales: the so-called “likely vote”, the probable vote — a metric that seeks to identify voters with a greater real chance of showing up at the polls and confirming their vote.
Considering this breakdown, the advantage, though slight, appears on the right's side. Still, the BTG Pactual chairman was emphatic in saying that the margin is too small to allow any safe prediction about the final result.
Market reading
The statement reinforces the cautious tone that has marked analyses of the race. For the financial sector, such a tight outcome tends to keep volatility high until the polls confirm the result, since the degree of uncertainty about the next government's economic direction remains high.
- The race is described as “virtually tied”;
- The “likely vote” indicates a slight favoritism toward the right;
- The decision should come only in the runoff;
- The projected margin is 51% to 49%.
What's at stake
Esteves's remarks gain weight because of his position at the helm of one of the country's largest financial institutions. His reading is usually followed closely by investors attentive to the electoral impact on interest rates, exchange rates and the stock market.
This Monday (Sept. 14, 2026), however, the message was less about economic scenarios and more about the election's own unpredictability. In such a balanced picture, any movement in the final weeks of the campaign could be enough to define the result.
The conclusion of the BTG Pactual chairman is direct: the final score should be tight, but the winner remains open. “We just don't know for whom,” he said.