Tight Race in the Runoff
The latest AtlasIntel poll, in partnership with Bloomberg, reveals a technical tie scenario between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT) for the presidential runoff. Flávio leads by a minimal difference of 0.1 percentage point, reversing Lula's slight advantage observed in the previous round.
With a margin of error of 1 percentage point, the two candidates are technically tied, which increases tension for the election.
Other Matchups Show Lula's Advantage
In four alternative runoff scenarios, the PT candidate leads against opponents such as Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (Novo), Augusto Cury (Avante) and Renan Santos (Missão). The advantages range from 2.5 to 24.7 percentage points.
Results Breakdown
- Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) x Lula (PT): Flávio 47.7%, Lula 47.6%, blank/null 4.8%
- Lula (PT) x Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): Lula 45.9%, Caiado 43.4%, blank/null 10.8%
- Lula (PT) x Romeu Zema (Novo): Lula 47.4%, Zema 41.2%, blank/null 11.4%
- Lula (PT) x Augusto Cury (Avante): Lula 46.2%, Cury 36.1%, blank/null 17.7%
- Lula (PT) x Renan Santos (Missão): Lula 46.2%, Santos 28.9%, blank/null 24.7%
Research Context
In the first round, Lula maintains leadership with about three points ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro. The study surveyed 5,005 people online and is registered with the Electoral Court under code BR-04391/2026.