National Overview
A new poll by the Quaest institute, released this Monday 28, indicates that President Lula (PT) maintains the lead in the first round with 39% of voting intentions. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears in second place with 34%, a difference of five percentage points. In the previous week, the score was 37% to 33%.
The survey interviewed 2,004 voters between Thursday and Sunday, with a margin of error of two percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The registration with the Electoral Court is BR-06520/2026.
Regional Highlights
- Southeast: the scenario is a technical tie. Lula rose from 30% to 33%, while Flávio oscillated from 36% to 35%. The margin of error is three points.
- South: Flávio widened the advantage, going from 39% to 30% to 41% to 27%. Margin of error of six points.
- North: Lula leads numerically with 42% against 38% (previously 41% to 37%), with a margin of error of eight points.
- Center-West: Flávio grew from 36% to 28% to 44% to 29%, margin of error of eight points.
- Northeast: Lula remains comfortable with 56% to 24% (previously 54% to 23%), margin of error of four points.
Methodology
The regional data present larger margins of error, varying between three and eight points, according to the sample size in each area. The institute did not release numbers for other pre-candidates in this breakdown.