The presence of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the TV Globo presidential debate, scheduled for next Thursday, has not yet been confirmed by the president's team. The decision depends on strategic assessments of how the event could influence voters who have not yet decided their vote.
Direct pressure from opponent
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) has already confirmed his participation and issued a public challenge to the PT candidate, stating that he intends to confront him directly on the program. The senator repeated that he will attend the event even without Lula's confirmation, making the president his main target.
Recent polls guide calculation
Polls released on Monday show Lula ahead in the first round, with 42% against 37% for Flávio Bolsonaro in Nexus/BTG and 39% against 34% in Quaest. In the second round, however, the two appear technically tied. The margin of error in both is two percentage points.
Focus on doubtful voters
About 12% of respondents in the Nexus/BTG poll indicate they may change their opinion by October 4. In Quaest, the number of undecided voters reaches 31% in the spontaneous version. The campaign considers that the debate could be an opportunity to reach part of this public in the final stretch.
Fewer candidates, fewer attacks
With only four confirmed participants — Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) —, the format reduces the president's exposure to concentrated criticism. Renan Santos and Romeu Zema were left out. Lula should consult allies until Wednesday to decide on attending the event.