Segmented Growth
Six days before the first round, a new round of the Quaest poll reveals that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has expanded his base among Catholics, women voters and independents. The data were released on Monday, 28.
In the overall cut, the petista appears with 39% of voting intentions, against 34% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
Impact Among Catholics
Among Catholic voters, Lula jumped from 43% to 48% in just seven days. Flávio Bolsonaro rose two points, reaching 29%. Blank and null votes total 8%, undecided 5% and other candidates 4%.
The movement coincides with the circulation of fake news linking Flávio Bolsonaro to the removal of the title of patron saint of Brazil.
Female Preference
Among women, the president rose from 37% to 40%, while Flávio Bolsonaro fell from 32% to 29%. The petista’s advantage in this segment jumped from four to eleven percentage points.
Blank and null votes represent 11%, undecided women 8% and other names 7%.
Voters Without Party
Among independents, Lula advanced five points, from 22% to 27%. Flávio Bolsonaro fluctuated one point, to 22%. Other candidates total 19%, blank and null 18% and undecided 13%.
Despite the numerical difference, the technical tie remains within the four-point margin of error.
Poll Context
The numbers reflect a stimulated first-round scenario and were collected at a time of strong circulation of information about the STF and audios involving Flávio Bolsonaro and banker Daniel Vorcaro.