President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintains the lead in the first-round race, according to the latest AtlasIntel poll. He registers 45,3% of voting intentions, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears with 42,2%.
Difference above the margin of error
The 3,1 percentage point distance between the two main names is above the technical tie limit. The institute surveyed 5.005 voters between September 23 and 28, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point and a 95% confidence level.
Retreat compared to the previous week
Compared to the previous poll, released on September 22, both candidates lost support. Lula fell from 45,8% to 45,3%, and Flávio Bolsonaro retreated from 43,4% to 42,2%.
Position of the other candidates
- Renan Santos (Missão): 5,2% (up 0,7 points)
- Augusto Cury (Avante): 2%
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 1,8%
- Romeu Zema (Novo): 0,9%
Blank and null votes total 0,9%, while 1,2% of respondents said they had not decided their vote.
How the research was conducted
The study used digital recruitment to capture responses. The methodology maintains the standard of weekly rounds carried out by AtlasIntel, allowing to track the evolution of preferences until the election.