Paes Leads Projections for Rio Government
A new Quaest poll, commissioned by Globo, indicates that Eduardo Paes (PSD) maintains a numerical advantage in both runoff scenarios tested for the government of Rio de Janeiro.
Scenario with Douglas Ruas
In the simulation pitting Paes against Douglas Ruas (PL), the mayor appears with 43% of voting intentions, compared to 33% for his opponent. Blank, null, and abstention votes total 15%, while 9% of voters are still undecided. The difference between the two dropped from 13 to 10 points compared to the previous round.
Scenario with Garotinho
Against Garotinho (Republicanos), Paes registers 48%, while the former governor scores 20%. Blank or null votes reach 21% and undecided remain at 11%.
Survey Methodology
The study polled 1,302 voters aged 16 or older between September 25 and 28. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The registration with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) was made under protocol RJ-04419/2026.
The numbers indicate that Paes remains the favorite in a possible second-round decision, although the lead against Ruas has narrowed since September.