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Poll reveals technical tie between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in the 2026 presidential race

Futura/100% Cidades survey shows Flávio with 42.2% and Lula with 39.4% in the first round; margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.

Poll reveals technical tie between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in the 2026 presidential race

Tight scenario for 2026

A new poll released this Wednesday (30) puts Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the lead in a first-round simulation for the 2026 presidential elections, with 42.2% of voting intentions. Current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is right behind, with 39.4%, configuring a technical tie within the margin of error.

Other candidates

The other names, such as Edmilson Costa (PCB), Samara Martins (UP) and others, register less than 0.3% each. Clariana Barão (DC) scored zero.

Undecided and blank votes

About 2.6% of voters declared themselves undecided or did not respond, while 2.4% opted for blank, null or no one votes.

How the survey was conducted

Futura/100% Cidades interviewed 2,000 voters by phone between September 25 and 29. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The study was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-01122/2026.

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