Presidential Dispute in 2026
The most recent Quaest poll, commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo, indicates a highly competitive scenario for next year's presidential election. Lula (PT) appears with 37% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) registers 33%, configuring a technical tie within the margin of error.
The numbers represent a slight increase compared to the previous survey, when the PT member marked 36% and the PL parliamentarian, 31%.
Rejection and Voting Decision
The rejection of the two main names is practically identical: 55% of respondents say they would not vote for Lula under any circumstances, a percentage that rises to 56% in the case of Flávio Bolsonaro.
Among those who have already chosen a candidate, 79% say the decision is definitive, while 21% can still change their minds.
Second Round Scenarios
In the second round simulations, Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 42% against 41% for Lula. Other matchups were also tested:
- Lula x Ronaldo Caiado: 41% to 39%
- Lula x Augusto Cury: 39% to 35%
- Lula x Romeu Zema: 46% to 32%
Evaluation of the Current Government
Approval of the Lula government oscillates positively by one point, reaching 44%, but disapproval remains at 50%. In the overall evaluation, 42% consider the performance negative, 33% positive and 23% regular.
Methodology
The survey interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or over between September 17 and 20. The margin of error is two percentage points and the confidence level is 95%. The registration with the TSE is BR-06004/2026.