Expectation for the weekend
A new Quaest institute poll is expected to be released on Saturday (3), one day before the first round. The survey will update voting intentions for the government of Paraná and for the two Senate seats.
What the previous round revealed
In the previous poll, Sergio Moro (PL) was clearly ahead. Requião Filho (PDT) and Sandro Alex (PSD) were numerically tied in the race for second place. The PSD candidate, backed by Governor Ratinho Junior, rose from 15% to 20% between August and September.
How the new poll will be conducted
2,004 voters aged 16 and over will be surveyed across the state between October 2 and 3. Data collection is in-person, at households, using an electronic questionnaire. The margin of error is about 2 percentage points, with 95% confidence. The cost is R$ 243,486 and the TSE registration is PR-05119/2026.
Questions about the government
The questionnaire investigates candidate recognition and rejection. It also tests three possible second-round matchups:
- Requião Filho (PDT) x Sandro Alex (PSD)
- Requião Filho (PDT) x Sergio Moro (PL)
- Sandro Alex (PSD) x Sergio Moro (PL)
In addition, it measures approval of the current state government and whether voters believe Ratinho Junior deserves to indicate his successor.
Senate situation
For the Senate seats, the poll measures spontaneous and stimulated choices among nine names. In the previous round, there was a technical tie between Alexandre Curi (Republicanos), Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Filipe Barros (PL) and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT).
What could change
With October 5 approaching, the new poll should show whether Sandro Alex can sustain his growth and secure a spot in the second round or whether Moro’s lead solidifies.