15-point lead in the São Paulo race
The electoral landscape in São Paulo is beginning to take clearer shape. A Quaest poll commissioned by Globo and released this Tuesday puts Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), who is seeking reelection, at 42% of voting intentions. He is followed by Fernando Haddad (PT), with 27%.
The difference between the two pre-candidates is 15 percentage points, based on the poll's raw numbers.
How the poll was conducted
The study interviewed 1,800 people aged 16 or older in São Paulo state. Fieldwork was carried out between the 4th and 7th of this month, before the results were released.
The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, meaning the percentages shown may fluctuate within that range.
- Sample: 1,800 respondents
- Public: voters aged 16 or older
- Collection period: 4 to 7
- Margin of error: 2 percentage points
- Client: Globo
The weight of the national landscape
The election in São Paulo often serves as a thermometer for the presidential race, and this round is no different. The state has the country's largest electorate, which turns every move by the pre-candidates into a relevant signal for the maneuvering in Brasília.
Tarcísio is trying to consolidate his image as a manager and expand his support base in a state where the Bolsonarist camp is strong. Haddad, in turn, is betting on the PT machine and on the name recognition from his time as mayor of the capital to try to close the gap.
What the numbers indicate
A score of 42% to 27% suggests that, at this moment, the governor holds a comfortable lead and avoids a tight runoff scenario. Still, polls are snapshots of a moment: the official race only begins in 2026, and the board can change as alliances are formed and other names enter — or leave — the race.
It is worth remembering that electoral surveys measure voting intention at the time of collection and do not work as a prediction of the result. Fluctuations within the margin of error, changes in voters' mood, and the impact of new developments throughout the campaign often reshape the percentages.
Next steps
The trend is for new rounds of polling to be released in the coming months, allowing observers to track whether the governor's lead remains stable or shrinks in the face of his opponents' advances. For both sides, the challenge is to turn recognition into consolidated votes by the time the official race begins.