Race for the Senate starts crowded in São Paulo
The race for one of São Paulo's two seats in the Federal Senate begins with no isolated favorite. According to the Veritá Institute, former state Public Security secretary Guilherme Derrite (PP) and state deputy André do Prado (PL) are ahead in the preference of São Paulo voters, separated by a difference that the poll itself does not allow to be treated as a consolidated advantage.
The survey numbers
Derrite records 21% of voting intentions, while Do Prado has 20.3%. The distance between them is less than one percentage point — well below the poll's margin of error, which constitutes what analysts call a technical tie.
The study was conducted between September 7 and 12, with 3,025 voters interviewed in the state. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence interval is 95%.
What explains the configuration
- Derrite enters the race with the track record of having headed the Public Security department in the São Paulo state government, an area with strong electoral appeal in the state.
- Do Prado built his career in the state Legislature and presides over the Legislative Assembly of São Paulo, which guarantees him visibility among mayors and regional leaders.
The reading that both are technically tied is not a rhetorical detail: with a 2-point margin, any scenario in which one surpasses the other by less than two percentage points remains, statistically, undefined.
An open scenario
The picture drawn by Veritá indicates an election with a high degree of unpredictability and significant room for shifts in the coming polls. In large-scale proportional races such as São Paulo's, the electorate tends to define positions more firmly as the calendar advances and campaigns gain visibility.
Until then, the only certainty the numbers offer is that the fight for São Paulo's Senate seats tends to be decided in the details — and followed closely by polling institutes, parties and voters.