Politics · Ends on October 25, 2026 at 11:59 PM · Volume R$343
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Outcomes
| chance | |
|---|---|
| Lula (PT) | 55% |
| Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) | 49% |
| Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) | 50% |
| Romeu Zema (Novo) | 50% |
| Ratinho Junior (PSD) | 50% |
| Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) | 50% |
| Renan Santos (Missão) | 50% |
| Other candidate | 50% |
Rules and resolution
In this market, you predict who will be elected president of the Republic of Brazil in the 2026 election (1st round on October 4 and, if there is one, 2nd round on October 25, 2026).
Each candidate is a separate outcome, with its own "Yes" and "No". You can buy "Yes" on the one you think will win or "No" on the one you think will not win.
Resolution Criteria:
- A candidate's outcome will be "Yes" if they are proclaimed elected by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) as President of the Republic in the 2026 election, whether in the 1st or 2nd round. All other outcomes will be "No".
- "Other candidate" resolves as "Yes" if the elected candidate is not among the listed candidates.
- A candidate who does not register a candidacy, has their registration rejected or withdraws resolves as "No".
- The official TSE proclamation (diplomação) counts, not polls, projections, or victory declarations.
- If the election is postponed beyond 31/12/2026 or annulled by the Electoral Justice, the market may be voided and refunded.